If there’s one thing businesses hate more than taxes, regulations, or even competition, it’s uncertainty. They can adapt to challenges, but they need a stable economic environment to plan, invest, and grow. Unfortunately, President Trump’s erratic handling of tariffs—especially on Canadian steel and aluminum—is introducing exactly the kind of unpredictability that disrupts economic growth.

On Tuesday, Trump announced that he would double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, a move that sent shockwaves through financial markets. Then, just a few hours later, after Canadian officials threatened retaliatory measures, he abruptly walked it back, reinstating the original 25% tariff. The entire episode played out in a single day, leaving businesses, investors, and consumers scratching their heads.

While I appreciate Trump’s desire to protect American industries and workers, this kind of haphazard, knee-jerk policymaking is dangerous. It creates instability in the market, discourages long-term investment, and ultimately hurts the very people Trump says he wants to help. If he keeps this up, he risks derailing the economic prosperity that has been one of his biggest selling points.

Businesses Need Economic Certainty, Not Whiplash

The economy isn’t a game of checkers—it’s an intricate machine where every policy shift affects thousands of businesses and millions of jobs. Business leaders need consistency so they can make strategic decisions, plan for growth, and hire new employees.

When the government unpredictably raises, lowers, or eliminates tariffs in the span of a few hours, it creates chaos. Manufacturers that rely on steel and aluminum imports from Canada suddenly don’t know what their costs will be. Investors who were betting on stable trade policies are left scrambling. And small businesses that depend on these materials—like construction companies, appliance makers, and auto manufacturers—are forced to put hiring and expansion plans on hold because they don’t know what tomorrow’s costs will look like.

This isn’t some abstract, theoretical concern. When companies lack economic certainty, they do what any rational actor would do: they freeze. They delay investments, hold off on hiring, and brace for impact. That’s how economies slow down.

If Trump is serious about keeping the U.S. economy strong, he needs to stop making economic policy by gut instinct and start governing with a long-term strategy.

Tariffs Mean Higher Prices—For Everyone

Let’s be clear: tariffs are taxes. They might not be called that, but that’s what they are. And like all taxes, they get passed on to the consumer.

The idea that tariffs will somehow make American products “cheaper,” as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently claimed, is pure fantasy. In reality, they do the opposite.

Here’s why:

1. Higher Input Costs: Many American manufacturers rely on foreign steel and aluminum, particularly from Canada. When tariffs drive up costs, companies either have to eat the loss (hurting their profitability) or pass the cost on to consumers.
2. Less Competition, Higher Prices: Domestic steel and aluminum producers don’t lower their prices when tariffs are imposed on foreign competitors—they raise them. Why? Because with foreign competition handicapped, they can charge more and still be the cheaper option.
3. The Ripple Effect: When steel and aluminum get more expensive, so do the products made from them—cars, washing machines, canned goods, and even beer. The result? Everyday Americans end up paying more at the store.

We’ve seen this before. Trump’s 2018 washing machine tariffs were supposed to create American jobs, but a study in the American Economic Review found that each new job cost consumers $817,000 in higher prices. That’s an absurd price to pay for job creation. And yet, Trump is doubling down on the same playbook.

This isn’t winning. It’s self-sabotage.

Tariffs Against China? Maybe. Tariffs Against Canada? No.

Now, I’m not one of those free-market absolutists who thinks all tariffs are evil. There’s a strong argument for using tariffs as a strategic tool against China, which has spent decades engaging in currency manipulation, intellectual property theft, and industrial espionage. A tough stance against Beijing makes sense.

But Canada? The country that shares our longest border, is one of our largest trading partners, and has fought alongside us in every major war since World War I?

Slapping tariffs on Canadian goods isn’t about leveling the playing field—it’s economic isolationism disguised as nationalism. Canada isn’t flooding our market with artificially cheap, government-subsidized steel. It isn’t engaging in unfair trade practices. All we’re doing is punishing a close ally while making life more expensive for American businesses and consumers.

It’s one thing to be tough on trade cheaters like China. It’s another thing entirely to alienate your friends.

Will Trump’s Erratic Trade Policies Lead to a Recession?

That’s the billion-dollar question. So far, the economy has been remarkably strong, but trade uncertainty is a serious threat.

Economic growth depends on businesses being willing to invest in expansion, and unpredictability kills investment. If companies start pulling back due to uncertain trade policies, that slowdown could snowball into something much worse.

The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board put it best:

“Domestic manufacturers that compete with foreign goods will raise their prices to take advantage of the protectionism to increase their margins.”

Translation? Protectionist policies don’t just hurt consumers by making foreign goods more expensive—they also allow domestic companies to jack up their prices. That’s inflationary, and it could be the kind of thing that eventually chokes off economic growth.

If Trump keeps this up, he could end up undoing the very economic gains he worked so hard to achieve.

The Bottom Line

Look, I get it—Trump is a negotiator. He likes to use threats, bluffs, and bold moves to get what he wants. Sometimes that works in the world of business. But when it comes to the economy, unpredictability is not a strategy—it’s a liability.

Trump’s erratic tariff policies are hurting businesses, raising costs for consumers, and creating unnecessary uncertainty in the market. If he truly wants to strengthen American manufacturing, he should focus on cutting taxes, reducing regulations, and negotiating stable trade deals—not playing chicken with Canada and hoping for the best.

If he doesn’t change course, he risks turning an economic success story into a self-inflicted wound. And as always, it’s the American worker, the American business owner, and the American consumer who will pay the price.